Precious Metals Rally: Market New Pattern Driven by Multiple Positive Factors

Keywords: Precious Metals, Gold, Silver, Federal Reserve, Earnings Previews, Geopolitics

Introduction

On July 21, 2026, the international precious metals market experienced a strong rebound. Driven by multiple favorable factors including signals from US Secretary of State Rubio for diplomatic negotiations, falling international oil prices, and cooling inflation expectations, precious metals futures and stock prices rose in tandem. COMEX gold reclaimed the $4000/oz mark, with the main Shanghai gold contract rising over 1.3%, while silver showed even stronger momentum with the main Shanghai silver contract up 3.65% in a single day. Meanwhile, the A-share precious metals sector surged across the board, rising over 7%, with Xingye Silver & Tin, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit. This rebound not only reflects the market sentiment recovery but also indicates the repositioning of precious metal asset allocation value against the backdrop of deep adjustments in the global economic landscape.

Warming Macro Environment: From Inflation Concerns to Risk Appetite Recovery

On July 19, US Secretary of State Rubio clearly stated in a media interview that the Trump administration "remains open to diplomatic solutions." This statement significantly increased market expectations for negotiations on geopolitical conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, causing international oil prices to fall accordingly. Inflation concerns previously driven by soaring energy prices cooled, and market bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates weakened significantly. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific stocks rebounded sharply, and global risk appetite improved. Against this backdrop, the suppressed precious metals oversold rebound sentiment, previously constrained by expectations of liquidity tightening, was released, forming a pattern of multiple positive factors resonating.

From a fundamental perspective, global central banks' gold purchases remain strong. The latest data from the Russian Central Bank shows that as of the end of June, its gold holdings were 73.4 million ounces, slightly down month-on-month but still at historical highs. A World Gold Council report shows that Chinese gold ETFs achieved significant inflows in the first half of the year, with total holdings increasing by 29 tons to 277 tons, and total assets under management rising to 243 billion yuan. This indicates that even amidst gold price fluctuations, institutional investors' long-term allocation demand for gold remains strong.

Earnings Previews Catalyzing: The "Golden Age" of Precious Metals Companies

While prices continue to improve, A-share precious metals listed companies have successively released impressive earnings forecasts, providing solid earnings support for the sector's rise. Zhaogold Gold expects a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2026 of 347.48%-436.98%, Hengbang股份 expects an increase of 81.06%-122.36%, Western Gold expects growth of 280.16%-333.39%, and China Gold expects growth of 52.15%-70.7%. These figures not only reflect the significant boost to corporate profits from high gold prices but also show that leading enterprises have achieved high-quality growth through resource integration and cost control.

For example, Zhaogold Gold's net profit surged more than three times year-on-year, driven by the release of mining capacity and rising gold prices; China Gold Gold is expected to break the 4 billion yuan mark in net profit for the first half of the year, leveraging its full industrial chain advantages. Western Gold's performance is equally impressive, with non-net profit increasing by more than 1.7 times year-on-year. These earnings preview announcements effectively boosted market confidence and attracted continuous capital inflows into the precious metals sector.

Technical and Fundamentals: Rebound Momentum Continuously Accumulating

From a technical perspective, after a correction in early July, COMEX gold found strong support near the $3950/oz level, showing a clear oversold rebound pattern. During intraday trading on July 21, COMEX gold rose to $4058.7/oz, with silver showing even greater gains, breaking through the $58/oz mark for COMEX silver. In domestic precious metals futures, the main Shanghai silver contract was particularly strong, rising 3.65% in a single day to close at 14,186 yuan/kg, while silver T+D rose 2.84% simultaneously. Platinum and palladium also showed active performance, with the main platinum contract rising 1.63% and the main palladium contract rising 2.87%.

Figure: Price increase of major precious metals futures contracts on July 21, 2026 (Data source: Public market data)

From a funding perspective, as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations warm, expectations of declining real interest rates are strengthening, and the safe-haven and value-preserving functions of precious metals are regaining market favor. Some institutional investors took advantage of the previous correction to add to gold ETF positions, causing holdings to continue to rise. Additionally, the rebound in Asia-Pacific stocks has boosted overall risk appetite, also driving the rotation of funds from safe-haven assets to precious metals.

Future Outlook: Precious Metals Allocation Value Highlights

Overall, this precious metals rebound is not simply driven by short-term sentiment but by the resonance of multiple fundamental factors. Geopolitical negotiation expectations have cooled energy prices, easing inflation pressure; expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate policy shift are rising, pushing down US dollar real interest rates; coupled with high corporate growth verifying industry prosperity, the investment logic of precious metal assets is being re-examined.

However, it's also necessary to be vigilant that the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have already been partially priced in. If subsequent inflation data fluctuates or geopolitical situations change again, precious metal prices may still experience volatility. But from a medium-to-long-term perspective, against the backdrop of global dedollarization, continuous central bank gold purchases, and an upward debt cycle, the allocation value of gold and other precious metals remains prominent. For investors, the current time calls for balanced allocation, focusing on industry leaders and targets with high earnings certainty, while closely tracking the Federal Reserve's policy path and geopolitical developments.